Drag the scrubber to explore three displacement scenarios · Conservative · Base Case · RecursiveAll variables sourced from literature review L01–L34 · See methodology for confidence intervals
INTERACTIVE · SCENARIO EXPLORER · THREE HORIZONS
When Does 50% Displacement Arrive?
The answer depends on four variables: how fast AI capability grows, how quickly organizations adopt it, how long the conversion lag runs, and whether the recursive loop engages. Drag the scrubber to move between scenarios. Every number updates in real time.
DRAG TO EXPLORE SCENARIOSBase Case
CONSERVATIVERECURSIVE
CONSERVATIVE 2043–2050BASE CASE 2033–2036RECURSIVE 2029–2030
50% DISPLACEMENT ARRIVES
2034
8 years from now
METR DOUBLING ASSUMED
7mo
Overall trend, 2019–2024
CONVERSION LAG
3yr
Humlum model — 2–4yr range
ORG ADOPTION RATE
35%
Of M3-eligible firms deploy
RECURSIVE LOOP
OFF
AI writing its own code
TFP CEILING BINDING
YES
Acemoglu 0.71% constraint
DISPLACEMENT PROGRESSION — NOW TO 50% THRESHOLD
KEY ASSUMPTIONS — THIS SCENARIO
Loading...
WHAT WOULD HAVE TO BE TRUE
Loading...
CONSERVATIVE
2043–2050
Acemoglu TFP ceiling binds early. Conversion lag 4yr. Enterprise execution gap persists. Absorption sinks refill. Humlum null holds through 2030.
BASE CASE
2033–2036
7-month METR doubling continues. 3yr conversion lag. 35% org adoption rate. Recursive loop delayed. V9 friction reduces but doesn't prevent.
RECURSIVE
2029–2030
4-month METR trend holds (post-2023). Altman 2028 automated-researcher target met. Recursive loop engages. Conversion lag compresses to <1yr.