How AI writing its own code collapses every standard forecasting model — and what the hyperbolic curve means for 60 million US desk workers.
READ ANALYSIS →When AI writes its own code, the doubling period shrinks. When the doubling period shrinks, the curve stops being exponential. Here's what comes next.
Three scenarios — conservative, base case, and hyperbolic — and what distinguishes them.
At $5–15K/year vs $80K/year, replacing knowledge workers isn't a choice — it's a board-level obligation.
C-suite accountability, client relationships, and physical presence create the last moats. Here's how long they hold.
Adjust recursive multiplier, friction, and adoption speed. Watch the singularity point shift in real time.
The more important question isn't when displacement hits 50% — it's what society looks like in the window immediately after.
| METRIC | CONSERVATIVE | BASE CASE | RECURSIVE MODEL | SINGULARITY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% desk job displacement | 2040–2045 | 2031–2033 | 2029–2030 | 2028 |
| AI doubling period (2027) | 24 months | 10 months | 5 months | 2 months |
| Knowledge work viability | 2038+ | 2032–2035 | 2029–2031 | 2028–2030 |
| Physical/trade job disruption | 2040+ | 2035–2038 | 2031–2034 | 2029–2032 |